My New Site On Trading

As mentioned in my previous post, I won’t write too much about investing or trading in this blog. Instead, I have created a new site dedicated on currency trading (forex) – http://www.fxblackboard.com

This new fx site will be the place where I post my analysis, my views and the way I trade. The site is still “work in progress” and I will be adding more stuffs in the future such as trading articles, tutorials etc (if I can really sit down and pen my thoughts – I can’t write well! LOL) Right more, it’s more focused on my analysis on different currency pairs. In a way, it’s also like a trading diary to me, helping me to keep track and re-visit some of these trades or setups in the future.

It is a “hobby” site at this point in time. I am just passionate in trading… that’s all. I really want to create a site that can provide value and knowledge to other traders, especially newbies. There are just too many hyped-up nonsensical forex products out there in the market. You know… those “Make $20, 586 in 7 days Trading Forex With This Breakthrough System”. You get the idea. 99% of them are just pure marketers, i.e. they are not traders. They are just out to sell you and scam the hell out of your money.

Trading IS tough. If it is so easy, every Tom, Dick and Harry will be making obscene money and relaxing at the beach all day long. Isn’t it?

Anyway, if you happened to read my posts in my fx site, do support it by “liking” my posts or via other social media platforms, or you could just tell your friends who are interested in trading verbally, old-school style. 🙂

EURGBP Breakout

A chart with short explanation shows how I anticipated a breakout. I happened to got it right and the trade went in my favor.

I don’t want to make it seems that I am always right with my trades – I was stopped out from my crude oil long position yesterday. There was a sudden plunge in price due to a rumour/speculation of a possible Strategic Petroleum Reserve release.

I am thinking of starting a new website on trading currencies. I already has the domain ready, just that I am lazy to get it going. 😛


(click on chart for bigger view)

Consecutive Failed Pin Bars

Looking at the chart below, you can see the pin bars. They are supposed to be bearish price action. But after a series of them, if price still doesn’t come down as you anticipated, it’s best to liquidate your position. Because if it’s not coming down, it means it’s going up soon! Duh.

No matter how hard the sellers try to sell, it’s not coming down. In such cases, it usually means the buyers are going to overpower the sellers soon.

eurusd4h
(click on chart for a bigger view)

AUDCHF Uptrend Fizzles Out?

After a spectacular rally for the past few months, it seems that the upward move of AUDCHF is exhausted.

There is a classical double top being formed. It is not forming a higher high and the 8/21 EMA is heading down and crossing soon.

The inside bar set-up with a pin bar is the type I like best. After a bearish downward move, it tries to go back up but failed eventually thus having a upper shadow, which formed a pin bar. The price action is telling me that it is rejecting higher price.

One could enter a short position upon breaking the low of the mother bar.

The support is at around 0.9940. We will see if it will reach that support area.

audchf

Crude Oil Inside Bar False Breakout – Hikkake Pattern

crude oil hikkake pattern

Given the recent bullishness in crude oil, I was expecting it go higher. I set a stop entry buy when it broke above the mother bar on 5th July. However it turned out to be a false breakout. Price retraced back within the inside bar.

It was a false breakout and such price action is known as a hikkake pattern.

But somehow I just didn’t “see” it. I didn’t know what got into my head and completely missed it!

Should have liquidated my long position and turned short immediately. But I didn’t because I totally overlooked this hikkake pattern. I was stopped out in the end.

Well I am not sore about it. Just another learning experience for me. I need to open my eyes bigger in the future! 🙂

Moving on to the next trade!

EURAUD In A Nice Downtrend

euraud

Risk/Reward is 1:2

Shorted it via the inside bar setup. Once it broke the DL of mother bar, I was in.

Confluence with the EMA as well which is a classical short on rally.

Held it for 5 trading days before it reached my target which is TAOS S/L

Excellent Trading Opportunities – No Fanciful Indicators

A picture speaks a thousand words.

Below is the daily chart of EUR/GBP.

I don’t use indicators to determine whether to enter a position. 100% depends on what the price is telling me. I am not saying you can’t use indicators or they are no good. Indicators just act as a “reference” for me. Price action is still #1.

eurgbp
(click on chart for a bigger view)

Are You Trading Or Playing Casino?

Don’t have to trade everyday.
If there’s nothing to trade (opportunity), then don’t force to trade.

Buying IPO and intending to sell on the first day of trading is like playing BIG-SMALL in casino.
It’s not trading and it’s pure speculating
Always punting on penny counters is speculating too.

Calculate your risk per trade.
Don’t whack so many positions at the same time especially if it’s correlated. One down all down.

Don’t get too excited if you take profit and don’t get too upset if you cut loss.
You need to handle your emotions.

Don’t be always too eager to take little profit. Your 3 wins will not be able to cover 1 loss.

Trading is supposed to be as boring as possible –  if you have a system in place.
If you are looking for excitement,  please go to casino.

STI Closed At Day Low. Sell? Buy? Hold?

I got quite a number of emails asking what’s my view on the market after the recent sell-offs.

The problem is nothing new: Europe Sovereign Debt Crisis

YES… still the same old problem.

Personally, I feel the debt crisis is simply not enough to crash the market.

Do you really think those Wall Street traders cannot  anticipate all these Greece, Spain, Portugal debt issues in advance?

By the time you read the news and react to it, you are too late already.

So, after many days of selling in the markets, and if only now  you are thinking of selling your stocks… too late.

I can guarantee that when you “cut loss”, most likely price will reverse back up again.

Then when price goes up, you feel like you are missing out, you go and chase… you get trapped again because you bought at the highest and price start to fall again.

The cycle repeats… again and again and again.

“I am a long term/market cycle investor, what should I do?”

If you are into longer term investing… you need to form  your own view and have the conviction to stick to it.

Do you think the market is gonna be bullish or bearish within  the next 6 months, 1 year, 2 years etc?

If you think it’s bullish, then hold on to your stocks and forget all these “noise” in the market.

You cannot be emotional when your stock price just drop a bit  and you are scared like hell.

Because when you enter, be it for short term trading or long term investment, you should already know your “stop loss” or threshold level you can take.

My view is still remains the same: Bullish  (at least till end of 2012)

This is my personal view. I could be wrong. If you are bearish, I respect your view. This is what makes the market interesting.

Since I maintain my bullish stance, every sell-off is an opportunity for me to go long for my short term swing trade.

Do you realize that I seldom talk about those good FA stocks that I buy-and-hold? I mostly talk about short term trading.

That is because I am already invested in those companies which I feel is undervalued. Once I am vested in it, there is nothing much for me to do.

I just buy and hold on those good FA stocks. I don’t really  care about the fluctuation.

So, all in all, I am looking for opportunity to long. There are counters which I am already vested in it. I will buy on dips as long as I maintain my bullish view.

One Counter I Am Watching

I shared this information with my email subscribers yesterday. This is exclusive content as there are some stuffs I won’t share publicly on my blog.

If you would like to receive such content from me (trading, investing, resources, reports etc), please opt-in with your name and email address on the right hand side of my blog.

Well, I won’t spam you to death. Don’t worry, just good information.  😎

Let me tell you something….

I do short-term trading. Not everyday though, only when I
see an opportunity, then I will make a trade.
Bulk of my capital is still invested in the form of market
cycle investing, i.e. buy and hold good FA stock with a
longer time horizon

My trading capital is just a tiny portion only.

I trade not because I want to make money fast. I trade
because I am genuine interested in technical analysis (TA).
(of course, if I make money in the process, then I will be
happy too!)

When I have an opinion in a stock counter, the only way to
prove that my analysis is right is to put some money and
vested in it.

No point be a “hindsight king” and say, “SEE… I told you
this counter will go up, you don’t believe me!?”

When you asked that person whether they bought (long) it, they
will then say they never buy… sounds familiar? Haha…

Anyway, I was browsing some counters today, and this counter
happened to catch my attention:

<< YANLORD >>

Access the link below to view the chart:

http://i.minus.com/iYfhrEalVvXOn.png

Yanlord price is down and formed a lower high formation
during the past 4 days

It formed a DOJI candlestick on the last trading day (23 Mar)

If you attended the mentoring session, you will know that
doji is a potential trend reversal signal.

People is selling and there is fear in the market. We let
the short-sellers sell and let them make money first.

When the short sellers cannot push down the price further,
then it’s MY TURN TO GO IN.

As of writing (24 Mar 4.05am), the US market ended positive,
so Mon most likely will be a positive opening for the Asian markets.

Whether I will enter into the Yanlord trade will depend on
the price action on Mon.

Sharing on how the exact techniques (buy price, take profit,
stop loss etc) to enter the trade is beyond the scope of
this email.

But this email is to tell you that how you can time your
entry into the market better if you know how to read price
action and candlestick analysis.

Remember, trading is never 100% guarantee. Yanlord can still
go down on Monday.

We will see how Yanlord react on Monday then!

Have a good weekend ahead.

Regards,
Alex

P.S. I am just sharing my views only, not advising you to trade.