STI Heading for a Correction Soon?

Recently the market is on a rally and most of the counters are now overbought. I believe a correction will be coming soon. Maybe by as early as next Wednesday.

My analysis is based on Harmonic trading pattern AB=CD and classical support/resistance. Both happens to coincide with each other.

The bearish AB=CD pattern information can be found here. I suggest you read it. Very good information.

From the chart below, STI rallied from A to B, then retrace 38.6% from B to C, and could rally again from C to D for 261.8% (projection). By then, it should hit the gap which will act as resistance as well. The bearish AB=CD pattern would form.

A to B is about 9 days. So C to D must take at least 9 days also for the pattern to be valid. So by coming Wednesday, if the STI continues to rally, should be able to hit 2960. It should have a correction.

sti correction ab=cd 30 oct 2011

What Is Harmonic Trading?

I happened to browse in a book store and came across a book called: Harmonic Trading – Profiting from the Natural Order of the Financial Markets. Initially I thought it was some kind of Elliot Wave materials. It’s not really about that. Let me define harmonic trading, directly from the book itself:

“Harmonic Trading is a methodology that utilizes the recognition of specific structures that possess distinct and consecutive Fibonacci ratio alignments that quantify and validate harmonic patterns. These patterns calculate the Fibonacci aspects of these price structures to identify highly probable reversal points in the financial markets.

This methodology assumes that harmonic patterns or cycles, like many patterns and cycles in life, continually repeat. The key is to identify these patterns and to enter or to exit a position based upon a high degree of probability that the same historic price action will occur.”

There are people who think that financial markets are a random entity, i.e. price is random, there is no way you can predict based on historical data. However based on history, within this randomness, there is a degree of repetition. In other words, there is order within the chaos.

bearish retracement 0.618

Just to give one of the more basic and well-known example. Based on the diagram above, if the price fell from A to B and then rebounded to form a 0.618 (61.8%) retracement at C. There is a high probability that price will fall after completion of this “pattern” at C. So, if you are thinking of shorting, you might like to short-sell at C. There must a clear sign of resistance or reversal at C, or else this bearish reversal pattern will not be valid.

I did some checks on quite a number of random counters and I realized many times, they indeed do follow some kind of “harmonic patterns” based on such Fibonacci ratios. I don’t know whether it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy or what. But even utilizing relatively unknown Fibonnaci numbers such as  0.786 or 1.27, proved to be quite accurate, at least for me.

Maybe I shall try to predict a reversal. Please note that I am not analysing on hindsight. This is a “live” example at point of writing. I am not sure whether this particular counter will indeed reverse. I am looking at Archer Dianels (ADM):

archer daniels 25 oct 11

archer daniels 2 25 oct 11

Both charts are the same. I am just utilizing the Fibonacci ratios at different point in time. The 2 charts above showed they retraced exactly at 0.382 and 0.618 respectively (using different highs and lows).

Candlestick also shows that it is forming a evening star pattern, which is a reversal pattern as well. Both harmonic patterns and candlesticks seems to indicate that Archer Daniels will fall.

We can verify whether this counter will fall in the next couple of days. 🙂

Silver Price Might Fall Again

silver bearish pennant 17 Oct 2011

From the daily chart above, silver has formed a bearish pennant. Volume is getting lower and lower as well. For more information on bearish pennant, click here.

This is not looking good for me. It has the possibility that the price will go down lower.

silver possible retracement

Above is the weekly chart of silver, which also showed a bearish pennant in play. However, I added in the Fibonacci which showed the silver price stuck exactly at the 0.382 retracement level. It can’t break past that level for 3 weeks already.

Recently I happened to read up on “Harmonic patterns”, which talks about Fibonacci ratios and how some of these related ratios consistently formed some patterns. A bit “cheem” for me also, I am still learning. However, I can see that it has the possibility to form such “bullish” pattern. The price has to go down first once more before silver will shift to an uptrend again.

As such, silver has the possibility to go down for a 1.13 retracement, which is about USD$25 level.

bullish harmonic trading

If you don’t know what I am talking about, it’s alright. I am just trying to say that silver has the possibility to go down lower and it can go as low as ~$25.

Please note that I am not analyzing on hindsight. I am analyzing at this moment in time which the price is on the extreme right of the chart. This means that I don’t know what will happen in the next few days or 1-2 weeks. I might be wrong (I am always wrong) and who knows silver will just rally and go higher and higher.

But personally, I will go to UOB today (Mon 17/10) and sell my silver away. I feel that there is not much upside at the moment while the downside is a lot more (might drop to US$25). If the price really drop till that level, I will buy back again.

From TA, my own judgement is that it will drop… just don’t know when. It’s the timing that’s difficult to catch. So, I rather sell first (I don’t mean shorting, I mean holding cash) and not buy.

This is just my personal opinion. I am just sharing what I will be doing.